Pew: In 34 of 37 Countries, More People Expect AI to Cut Jobs Than Create Them

A sweeping new global report from Pew Research Center reveals that pessimism about AI's effect on employment outweighs optimism in nearly every country studied. Published on September 17, 2026, the report draws on a survey of 42,151 adults conducted across 36 countries, with U.S. figures supplied by two separate surveys of American adults, bringing the total country coverage to 37. It offers one of the broadest snapshots yet of how people around the world view AI's economic impact.

Global Majority Expects Fewer Jobs

Across all 37 countries covered by the research, a median of 46% of adults said they believe AI will lead to fewer jobs in their country over the next 20 years. Only 9% said AI would lead to more jobs, while 25% said they were not sure. The pattern held in 34 of the 37 countries surveyed, where more respondents expected job losses than job gains.

Wealthier Nations Are More Pessimistic — and More Aware

The data shows a consistent pattern tied to national income levels. Among the 18 high-income countries in the sample, a median of 55% of adults expect AI to lead to fewer jobs, compared with a median of 36% across the 18 middle-income countries. Pew classifies countries using World Bank income groups.

Uncertainty was notably higher in middle-income nations: a median of 34% in those countries said they were unsure how AI would affect jobs, against 22% in high-income countries. Pew notes that opinion in these markets "may still be taking shape."

AI awareness follows a similar geographic pattern. A median of 50% of adults in high-income countries said they have heard or read a lot about AI, compared with 27% in middle-income countries. Awareness ranged from 56% in Japan to 4% in Bangladesh. Pew reports a correlation of 0.74 between GDP per capita and the share of people who have heard a lot about AI.

Country-Level Highlights

Australia and South Korea had the highest shares of adults expecting fewer jobs, at 76% each. The United States came in at 71% — up from 64% in August 2024. Singapore was flagged as an outlier: despite a GDP per capita close to $100,000, only 46% of Singaporeans expect fewer jobs.

South Korea presents another nuance worth noting. While South Koreans rank among the most likely to expect job losses, only 18% said they are more concerned than excited about AI's growing role in daily life, and 61% said they are equally concerned and excited.

Views on Inequality and Overall Sentiment

Beyond jobs, the survey asked about inequality and emotional responses to AI. A median of 35% in high-income countries said AI will widen the gap between rich and poor, compared with 22% in middle-income countries. On daily-life sentiment, a median of 40% in high-income countries said they are more concerned than excited about AI's growing use, versus 31% in middle-income countries. Pew notes that concern and excitement are less closely tied to GDP per capita than views on jobs or inequality.

Awareness Is Rising, but Uncertainty Remains

The share of adults who have heard a lot about AI increased in 11 of the 25 countries also surveyed the previous year. Nigeria recorded the largest gain, at 14 percentage points. In countries where people report higher AI awareness, those individuals tend to be more likely to expect fewer jobs — though in many countries, higher awareness also correlates with greater optimism about AI in daily life.

What the Data Does and Does Not Show

Pew's country-level correlation of 0.60 between GDP per capita and job-loss expectations indicates that wealthier countries tend to show higher pessimism, but the report does not establish that national wealth causes people to expect fewer jobs. Similarly, the survey captures public expectations and sentiment, not behavioral responses to AI products or features.